Monetary Accommodation, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence

Section I presents a model of the inflationary process based on staggered contracts. This suggests that if monetary and exchange rate policy accommodates price shocks to maintain the level of real aggregate demand and the level of international competitiveness, then it will affect the expectations of wage and price setters, and will result in a higher persistence of inflation. Section I1 presents evidence that in periods of fiduciary standards and managed exchange rates there has indeed much higher persistence of global inflation and inflation differentials than in the period of the classical gold-standard and Bretton Woods. Monetary accommodation of average price shocks at the global level has also been much higher outside the latter two regimes, and exchange rate accommodation of relative price shocks has been very high in regimes of managed exchange rates. The final section summarises the conclusions and briefly discusses the implications of the findings for international monetary and exchange rate regimes.

The Economic Journal

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