In this paper we analyze the changes in the fundamentals of the international monetary system following the introduction of the euro, as well as the likely transition scenario to the new world monetary equilibrium. We suggest that the introduction of the euro will bring about potentially important changes in the international monetary scene, as the euro will substitute to a large extent for the dollar as an international means of payments, unit of account and store of value. Such changes in the fundamentals will bring about an increased demand for euros shortly after the introduction of the new currency in international markets.
The first manifestation of the increased demand for euros will be an appreciation of the new currency against the US dollar and the yen. If the euro does challenge the dollar’s hegemony, this is likely to be a cause of instability in the international monetary system, which appropriate policy coordination could potentially mitigate.
in Paul R. Masson, Thomas H. Krueger and Bart G. Turtelboom (eds), EMU and the International Monetary System, Washington D.C., International Monetary Fund (with Richard Portes).